Pac 12 picks

The Pac 12 has transformed itself in the last 7-10 years.  It used to be a top heavy conference headed by the big dawgs from Southern Cal.  From 2002 to 2008 the Trojans won at least a share of the conference title and appeared in BCS bowls in EACH of those seasons.  The Trojans of that era were incredible, to be sure, but the conference on the whole was fairly shallow.  These days the Pac 12 is vastly different.  There are several good to great teams in this league.  The conference is far deeper and more competitive than Ive ever seen it.  Most of the teams in the league appear to be getting better.  Better yet, almost all of them are interesting for one reason or another.  Most of this can be attributed to the new coaching blood brought in in recent years.  Mike Leach, Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham and Chris Peterson have helped overhaul this conference into the most interesting league in the country.  I look forward, with tremendous anticipation, to what the Pac 12 has to offer this season.  Here are my Pac 12 picks for 2014.

The Pac 12 South is an easy pick.  Its a freaking slam dunk, perhaps the easiest pick in all of College Football.  The UCLA Bruins will win the Pac 12 South.  Period.  There are good teams in this division, but none of them matches the quality that the Bruins possess.  QB Brett Hundley shocked many last fall when he announced his return for his Junior season.  I think he would have been a top 10 pick in the draft.  Regardless he returns to a unit, and a team, that is loaded.  The Bruins return 9 offensive starters including 4 O-lineman, and 4 of its top 5 receivers.  Hundley was fantastic in 2013 completing 66%of his passes with a 24/9 Td to int ratio.  He also led the team in rushing with 748 yards and 11 TDs.  Put simply, Hundley is a freaking stud.  The Bruins are similarly talented on the other side of the ball.  Eric Kendricks and All-World Freshman Myles Jack both return at LB for UCLA.  Overall, 5 of their top 7 tacklers, including 7 starters, are back in 2014.  This unit could be downright nasty.  Last year the Bruins ran into a buzz saw in the form of back to back road games at Oregon and Stanford.  This year they do not have such misfortune.  The schedule is tough, but not unmanageable.  There are road games to Texas (in Arlington) and Arizona State, but they get Oregon, Stanford, and USC in the Rose Bowl.  The Bruins have the pieces, and the coaching, to navigate this schedule and come out on top in the Pac 12 South.  There is no doubt about that.  Could they potentially be in play for a bigger prize?  Perhaps, but for now I will call for them to win this division, hands down.

The Pac 12 North is much, much less clear.  There are two juggernauts among the contenders in this division.  Both Oregon and Stanford can lay claim to the position of best in the conference.  They both have the pedigree, and win totals, to back it up.  The Ducks will be the favorite for a variety of very legitimate reasons.  First Marcus Mariota returns under center.  Mariota put up ridiculous, gaudy, video game type numbers in 2013, including a 31/4 TD to Int ratio and over 700 yards rushing.  These border on absurd.  Secondly, Oregon will roll out its usual bevy of explosive offensive weaponry, including 1,000 yard rusher Byron Marshall.  Additionally the Ducks have a favorable schedule schedule including hosting the Cardinal on November 1st.  All these factors clearly point to Oregon winning this division.  But I’m not.  I am picking Stanford to win the Pac 12 North.  Stanford has built an awesome program over the last several years.  The Cardinal have won back to back Pac 12 championships and the 2014 outlook once again looks strong.  Stanford returns 7 of its top 8 receivers to aid developing QB Kevin Hogan.  Hogan, who has had some struggles in his career, is poised for a big year in 2014.  The Defense will have to replace some parts, including departed Defensive Coordinar Derek Mason, but do return monster LB A.J Tarpley.  The schedule is  an absolute minefield, with trips to Washington, Arizona State, Oregon and UCLA.  Logic and reason all indicate that Oregon will win this division.  I am taking a leap of faith in David Shaw and the Stanford program.  I think they will find a way to grind out wins in tough environments.   The Cardinal, with their rugged line play and hard nose style, are built for such a challenge.  Stanford pulls out the Pac 12 North leaving the Ducks once again crying in their beer.

In the end, Ill take the Bruins to oust the Cardinal in Santa Clara for their first conference title since 1998.

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Pac 12 Picks (2013)

Each week until the season begins I will select winners in the top 6 conferences.  Then, during opening week I will unveil my National Title picks.  This week I will begin with my Pac 12 picks.

North
The North appears to be a two team race because, well, it is.  Oregon and Stanford are head and shoulders ahead of the competition within the division.  If Chip Kelly were returning to Eugene I would have the Ducks in the National Title game, but since the coaching situation is a major unknown, it is difficult to have such lofty expectations of the Ducks.  Sure they return Marcus Mariota, who put up unreal numbers as a Freshman, (32-6 ratio qualifies as unreal) and a plethora of lightening fast weapons on offense.  De’Anthony Thomas is one of the most fun players in the country to watch.  But there are many unknowns with Mark Helfrich.  For this reason, I am choosing Stanford as my Pac-12 North Champion. Stanford gets Oregon at home, giving them the leg up on the tiebreaker.  From my couch it appears that Stanford has it rolling as a program.  They have developed a steak and potatoes type program that makes them super fun to watch for this observer.  They feature sensational front 7 play on defense along with a terrific ground attack make them very tough to beat in that conference.  The big question mark is at running back where they have to replace Stepfan Taylor.  The good news is there are capable candidates in Palo Alto(including Bary Sanders Jr).For me David Shaw belongs in the conversation as one of the top up and coming young coaches in football.  I, for one, was very skeptical of the hire when it was made.  I am not afraid to say that I was wrong.  This year Stanford is a legitimate National Title contender once again.  Ill take the trees over the Ducks in the North.

South
The Pac 12 South is far messier than the North.  I think there are 3-4 teams that you could legitimately make a case for in that division.  USC is probably the “experts” favorite.  Those same “experts” had SC number 1 in the preseason only to watch them fall to pieces.  There was no bigger disaster last year in college football than the Trojans.  Lane Kiffin is going into his 5th years as a college football head coach, but there seem to be more questions than answers.  To me, he sucks.  His last name has given him 3 head coaching opportunities.  He has done nothing in that time to prove he is competent.  If his name were Lane Smith nobody would be handing the keys of their program over to him.  I have no faith in him at this point and think the Trojans will again dissapoint and will be looking for another coach by Thanksgiving.  UCLA has a brutal schedule with road games @ Stanford, Oregon, Nebraska, Arizona and USC.  That said, they return a number of very talented players including Brett Hundley and Anthony Barr.  They have the best mix of talent and coaching but the schedule will prove to be too much. My pick to win the Pac 12 South is Arizona State.  I think Arizona St. will be good, but they are my pick because they lack the warts the other contenders have.  Todd Graham is in his second year and while I find him unsavory personally, there is little doubt the man can coach.  They return fifteen starters from a team that went 8-5.  Taylor Kelly is the key to the offense.  Last year he completed 67% of his passes with a 29-9 ratio.  It only stands to reason that he will maintain if not improve in year 2 of the system.  I realize I may be going out on a limb with this pick but I cant find a compelling reason to pick any of the other contenders.  Besides would making picks be any fun if you just went with chalk all the time?  In the Pac 12 Title Game Stanford will defeat Arizona State on the Farm to win the Pac 12.