Saturday notes on a Sunday 8/31

*The Penn State/Central Florida game was a real treat.  First off it started at 7:30 giving me my College Football fix bright and early.  Secondly it was a fascinating matchup with incredible action that combined for the best game of the day.  For most of the game UCF could muster little offensively.  Then they replaces Pete Dinovo with Justin Holman under center.  Holman was terrific.  He completed some accurate passes in tight spots including a 4th and 10 with the game on the line.  Holman will be a good one for the Knights.  The Lions  rode a productive performance by Christian Hackenberg, who threw for 454 yards, to victory.  This one was tight, it could have easily gone either way.  In the end, Penn State mounted a game winning drive in the last 1:20 to win it at the gun.  Thats a hell of a way to ring in the first College Football Saturday.

*A strange opening day.  Several top teams struggled to get going.  Alabama danced around with West Virginia all day long, Ohio State survived a hell of a scare from Navy, Florida State had a tougher time with the Pokes than most figured, UCLA required 3 defensive TDS (more on that later) to escape Virginia, Texas Tech gave up 400 yards to Central Arkansas, NC State needed a comeback to defeat Georgia Southern.  All over, heavily favored teams were struggling.  I am not sure what this means, but it sure was interesting.  Its definitely something to follow going forward.

*I picked UCLA to win the Pac 12 and today, after 1 game, I look foolish.  I thought this was one of the better teams in the country, but against a bottom tier ACC team the Bruins stunk up the joint.  The Bruins required 3, yes, 3 defensive TDs to hold off Virginia 28-20.  More concerning is the Offensive Line play.  Brett Hundley was sacked 5 times and harassed countless others.  Hundley is a good QB, but if they cant keep him upright, then they are going nowhere.  The Virginia Cavaliers arent the 85 Bears, so Jim Mora and company had better get this figured out in a hurry of this season is going nowhere.

*The Wisconsin Badgers totally shit the bed Saturday night against LSU.  UW had looked good jumping out to a 24-7 lead over the Tigers.  Then the Badgers went in the tank.  Their final 5 possessions are as follows: punt, punt, PICK 6, Interception, punt.  These 5 drives totaled 32 yards.  Not only did the Badgers fail to finish LSU, they pretty much rolled out the red carpet for their comeback.  Wisconsin head coach Gary Andersen stubbornly stuck with Tanner McEvoy who was pitiful, going 8/24 for 50 yards and 2 Ints.  With the Tigers charging, Andersen declined to insert QB Joel Stave, a known commodity, into the game.  Andersen and The Badgers will have all kinds of excuses for why they lost this game, but ultimately they gave it away.

STOCK UP-teams who impressed

-Texas A&M- I’d put the Aggies twice if it didnt seem silly to do so.  They walked into South Carolina and absolutely scorched the earth.  I cant tell you how impressed I was with them.
-USC- Slapping around a pretty decent Fresno State squad lands the Trojans on the stock up list.
-Rutgers- Going all the way across the country and coming out with a W is quite a feat for a program with no real expectations.  The low bar qualifys the Knights for the Stock Up list.
-UTSA- The Roadrunners went into Houston and peed all over their brand new stadium.  This is a huge win for this program.  Great job by Larry Coker and staff, starting that program and building it into something.
-Georgia- Ill take my medicine on this one.  I thought Clemson would walk into Athens and steal one.  I was wrong.  The Dogs showed me something by scoring the games final 31 points.  Well done Dogs.

STOCK DOWN- teams who depressed
Northwestern- Letting Cal walk in and kick you in the junk?  I have to rethink the Wildcats after that piss poor performance.
South Carolina- There are no words for my level of disappointment.
Wisconsin- Badger fans have to be sick after pissing that one away last night.
Washington- The Huskies land here for playing around with Hawaii like it was their pet.  Stock down UW.
UCLA- Blocking should be a point of emphasis this week at Bruin practice.

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Pac 12 picks

The Pac 12 has transformed itself in the last 7-10 years.  It used to be a top heavy conference headed by the big dawgs from Southern Cal.  From 2002 to 2008 the Trojans won at least a share of the conference title and appeared in BCS bowls in EACH of those seasons.  The Trojans of that era were incredible, to be sure, but the conference on the whole was fairly shallow.  These days the Pac 12 is vastly different.  There are several good to great teams in this league.  The conference is far deeper and more competitive than Ive ever seen it.  Most of the teams in the league appear to be getting better.  Better yet, almost all of them are interesting for one reason or another.  Most of this can be attributed to the new coaching blood brought in in recent years.  Mike Leach, Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham and Chris Peterson have helped overhaul this conference into the most interesting league in the country.  I look forward, with tremendous anticipation, to what the Pac 12 has to offer this season.  Here are my Pac 12 picks for 2014.

The Pac 12 South is an easy pick.  Its a freaking slam dunk, perhaps the easiest pick in all of College Football.  The UCLA Bruins will win the Pac 12 South.  Period.  There are good teams in this division, but none of them matches the quality that the Bruins possess.  QB Brett Hundley shocked many last fall when he announced his return for his Junior season.  I think he would have been a top 10 pick in the draft.  Regardless he returns to a unit, and a team, that is loaded.  The Bruins return 9 offensive starters including 4 O-lineman, and 4 of its top 5 receivers.  Hundley was fantastic in 2013 completing 66%of his passes with a 24/9 Td to int ratio.  He also led the team in rushing with 748 yards and 11 TDs.  Put simply, Hundley is a freaking stud.  The Bruins are similarly talented on the other side of the ball.  Eric Kendricks and All-World Freshman Myles Jack both return at LB for UCLA.  Overall, 5 of their top 7 tacklers, including 7 starters, are back in 2014.  This unit could be downright nasty.  Last year the Bruins ran into a buzz saw in the form of back to back road games at Oregon and Stanford.  This year they do not have such misfortune.  The schedule is tough, but not unmanageable.  There are road games to Texas (in Arlington) and Arizona State, but they get Oregon, Stanford, and USC in the Rose Bowl.  The Bruins have the pieces, and the coaching, to navigate this schedule and come out on top in the Pac 12 South.  There is no doubt about that.  Could they potentially be in play for a bigger prize?  Perhaps, but for now I will call for them to win this division, hands down.

The Pac 12 North is much, much less clear.  There are two juggernauts among the contenders in this division.  Both Oregon and Stanford can lay claim to the position of best in the conference.  They both have the pedigree, and win totals, to back it up.  The Ducks will be the favorite for a variety of very legitimate reasons.  First Marcus Mariota returns under center.  Mariota put up ridiculous, gaudy, video game type numbers in 2013, including a 31/4 TD to Int ratio and over 700 yards rushing.  These border on absurd.  Secondly, Oregon will roll out its usual bevy of explosive offensive weaponry, including 1,000 yard rusher Byron Marshall.  Additionally the Ducks have a favorable schedule schedule including hosting the Cardinal on November 1st.  All these factors clearly point to Oregon winning this division.  But I’m not.  I am picking Stanford to win the Pac 12 North.  Stanford has built an awesome program over the last several years.  The Cardinal have won back to back Pac 12 championships and the 2014 outlook once again looks strong.  Stanford returns 7 of its top 8 receivers to aid developing QB Kevin Hogan.  Hogan, who has had some struggles in his career, is poised for a big year in 2014.  The Defense will have to replace some parts, including departed Defensive Coordinar Derek Mason, but do return monster LB A.J Tarpley.  The schedule is  an absolute minefield, with trips to Washington, Arizona State, Oregon and UCLA.  Logic and reason all indicate that Oregon will win this division.  I am taking a leap of faith in David Shaw and the Stanford program.  I think they will find a way to grind out wins in tough environments.   The Cardinal, with their rugged line play and hard nose style, are built for such a challenge.  Stanford pulls out the Pac 12 North leaving the Ducks once again crying in their beer.

In the end, Ill take the Bruins to oust the Cardinal in Santa Clara for their first conference title since 1998.

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Friday night fun

Do yourself a favor tonight and watch Washington @ UCLA.  The Pac 12 is the most interesting conference in College Football and these 2 teams are amongst the most interesting.  Washington is a real up and comer with some good players on both sides of the ball.  Bishop Sankey is 3rd nationally in rushing yards per game.  Keith Price will be playing on Sundays soon enough.  On the other side Brett Hundley will be a first round draft pick. LB Anthony Barr is also excellent and the Defense is loaded with young talent. Again do yourself a favor and tune in tonight.  These teams are quite good and you will not be sorry.  You can thank me tomorrow.

Looking ahead to Saturday- Week 9

Another terrific weekend of action as several highly ranked teams bit the dust.  This was the 2nd such weekend in a row.  This welcomed craziness has to tapper off at some point doesnt it?  I believe it does, and that this may be the weekend it happens.  Here are a few of the bigger matchups ahead of us this weekend.

Boise State @ BYU (Friday)- A nice matchup for your Friday pleasure.  Taysom Hill leads the Cougars with over 750 yards rushing.  BYU as a team ranks 14th nationally in rushing.  But I think Boise State’s Defense will be up for the challenge.  Give me The Broncos on the road to defeat BYU.

Northwestern @ Iowa- The Wildcats have lost 3 straight including an embarrassment last Saturday at home to Minnesota.  They desperately need to stop the bleeding.  Don’t look now but Northwestern has to go to Iowa on Saturday.  Iowa hung around with Ohio State last Saturday and are showing they are better than their record would indicate.  This one will be very interesting.  Give me Northwestern to gut out a victory in Kinnick Stadium.

N.C State @ Florida State- 2 words- TRAP GAME.  Florida State has a history of going to Raleigh and getting beat by The Wolfpack.  The key to the game for The Seminoles is getting off the bus.  There is no Phillip Rivers or Tory Holt these days for The Wolfpack.  The Noles could lose but it will take a tremendous let down for it to happen.  I think FSU will win BIG.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma- Texas Tech has to be the surprise team of the Big 12 and Kliff Kingsbury the darling of it. The Red Raiders are 7-0 and appear to have things rolling.  Well the road is about to get a lot tougher for Tech as they head to Norman.  The Sooners haven’t necessarily been setting the world ablaze but they are still Oklahoma and The Sooners are always tough at home.  That said the OU Offense has struggled mightily while Tech averages over 40 points per game.  That is the difference as the Red Raiders dream season continues.

Tennessee @ Alabama- Tennessee has been involved in big game after big game in recent weeks.  The Vols have shown they are up to the task.  This week is another big game.  This time it is against the 2 time defending National Champs.  The Tide were made for games like this.  The Vols roll into Tuscaloosa with a snoot full of vinegar and Alabama is going to eat their lunch and send them home crying.  The Tide roll easily.

UCLA @ Oregon- The Bruins attempt to bounce back from a rough performance against Stanford.  The problem is this week they go to Oregon.  The Ducks Defense is good, but not Stanford good.  Their Offense is, well, fill in your own adjective.  Marcus Mariota has been sensational.  Brett Hundley is good, but the UCLA Offense cant keep up with The Ducks.  I personally would like to see The Bruins pull this one out.  Lets make no mistake, Oregon will win this game.  The question is how large will the victory be.  The oddsmakers have this spread at 23.5, so there is an opinion for you.

South Carolina @ Misery- The Tigers have had an impressive run in recent weeks defeating both Georgia and Florida.  This week The struggling Gamecocks limp into town.  In addition Connor Shaw will miss this game.  I would like very much to see South Carolina bring Misery back to earth, and it could happen.  But that would require a complete transformation from The Gamecocks.  I’m not sure they can salvage their season at this point.  Misery wins again……rats

Penn State @ Ohio State- Can Christian Hackenberg lead The Nittany Lions to an upset of Ohio State?  In a word: No

Stanford @ Oregon State- Would you believe that Oregon State has the top passing Offense nationally?  It’s true.  The Beavers also are number 9 nationally in points.  Those facts make this a classic good Offense meets good Defense matchup.  It is my policy to take The Defense in such matchups.  I see no reason to break that policy now.  Stanford wins, but it might be close.

Looking ahead to week 8

Its going to awful hard to top last week.  There were upsets all over the place and thrilling finishes galore.  This week has an awful lot to live up to.  Lets take a look at some top matchups.

Texas Tech @ West Virginia- A few weeks ago I wrote off the Mountaineers.  I figured they were Dog feces after getting shut out by Maryland.  Then they beat the bejesus out of Oklahoma State in Morgan town.  This shocked the hell out of me and has restored my faith in them.  The Red Raiders will be starting their second Freshman QB in Davis Webb.  I think its going to be too much for Tech and they fall to West Virginia.

Florida @ Missouri- Do the Tigers have the maturity to forget about last week’s MONSTER win and focus on a team at home minus James Franklin?  I say no.  Give me the Gators.  Their Defense will feast on a backup QB.

Auburn @ Texas A&M- The Aggies are coming off an absolute thriller in Oxford.  It was perhaps the most excititng game I have watched this season.  This week Auburn comes to town for a game that will not be short on firepower.  The Auburn Offense is averaging 287 yards per game while The Aggie Defense ranks 96th in the country for points allowed.  We know The Aggs can score but can they come up with the necessary stops to win the game?  I don’t think so.  This game is my upset special.

UCLA @ Stanford- The big stunner last weekend has Stanford losing to Utah.  There is no time for a hangover for The Cardinal as this week they get a very good UCLA team.  UCLA is led by Brett Hundley whose Offense is averaging 45 points per game.  But the Bruins have yet to play a Defense like this one.  The Stanford front 7 is as good as any in the country.  This one will be fascinating.  Give me the home team.

USC @ Notre Dame- A classic matchup even though neither team is very good.  Give me Notre Dame.

Washington @ Arizona State- The Huskies have to forget about last weekends loss to Oregon and take to the road against the Sun Devils.  Arizona State smoked Colorado last week but Washington will be a much tougher test.  This game pits 2 terrific QBs against each other.  Taylor Kelly and Keith Price are 2 of the best this conference has to offer.  Ill take Price to take his team on the road and come out with a victory.

LSU @ Ole Miss- I still think Ole Miss is a good team despite 3 straight losses.  They are simply in a tough stretch in a tough league with a TON of young players.  This team is still dangerous to a team like LSU.  After a big game against Florida perhaps LSU comes out a bit flat.  I like the Tigers in this one but I think it will be closer than most experts would have you believe.

Florida State @ Clemson- This one is going be be fantastic.  2 great teams, both with a ton at stake.  I think whoever wins is a frontrunner in the National Title chase.  Clemson has the edge at QB with Boyd.  He has the skins on the wall and thus the upper hand.  Clemson is also at home.  But give me the Seminoles in this one.  I think the bright lights might be a bit much for the Tigers.  Either way this one is a cant miss.

looking ahead to week 3

Looking back I think that was a pretty good week of football, especially for week 2.  Georgia impressed me the most in their GIGANTIC win over South Carolina.  I think the BYU/Texas game was the biggest surprise.  I thought BYU was pretty good and that Texas was overated, I even thought the Cougars would keep it close.  But I could have never predicted what went down.  Lets take a look ahead to week 3.

TCU @ Texas Tech (Thursday)- TCU loses Casey Pachall, and has to go with Trevon Boykin full time.  The crowd in Lubbock will be electric.  This one will be fun.

UCLA @ Nebraska- The Bruins roll into Lincoln where questions surround the Defense.  Needless to say Im jacked about this game.  The key for the Huskers will be slowing down Brett Hundley.

Alabama @ Texas A&M- The coverage of this game will be nauseating.  I sense many people are going to be really let down by this one.  The A&M defense is a real question mark.

Tennessee @ Oregon- Butch Jones and the Volunteers head out west.  Can the Vols pose any kind of challenge to the Speedy Ducks?  Probably not

Iowa @ Iowa St.- The Cy-Hawk series is always fun to watch.  Even when the teams arent very good.  These two dont like one another.  I think Iowa takes it to State.

Ohio St. @ Cal- Northwestern went out there an handled their business.  Now we get to see the Buckeyes go out there and play the very same team.  That is worth keeping an eye on.

Washington @ Illinois- 2 teams that have impressed in the early season square off.  Give me the Huskies in this one.

Boston College @ USC- Fire Kiffin!!!!

Ole Miss @ Texas- After Ole Miss the Horns have K-State and Oklahoma.  If Texas loses Saturday it could mean the train is coming off the tracks in Austin.  That alone is reason enough to watch.  Oh wait its on the Longhorn Network, so you probably wont see it.

Wisconsin @ Arizona St.- Perhaps the best game of the week.  Im interested in both of these squads but havent gotten the chance.  Ill put on a pot of coffee for this one.

GAMBLERS CORNER– a few lines to keep an eye on.  Last week I went 4 of 5 on my suggested lines.  God Damn Gamecocks.
Texas Tech +3 vs. TCU
Stanford -28.5 @ Army
Arkansas -22 vs. Southern Miss
Tennessee +28.5 @ Oregon
Notre Dame -21 @ Purdue

Pac 12 Picks (2013)

Each week until the season begins I will select winners in the top 6 conferences.  Then, during opening week I will unveil my National Title picks.  This week I will begin with my Pac 12 picks.

North
The North appears to be a two team race because, well, it is.  Oregon and Stanford are head and shoulders ahead of the competition within the division.  If Chip Kelly were returning to Eugene I would have the Ducks in the National Title game, but since the coaching situation is a major unknown, it is difficult to have such lofty expectations of the Ducks.  Sure they return Marcus Mariota, who put up unreal numbers as a Freshman, (32-6 ratio qualifies as unreal) and a plethora of lightening fast weapons on offense.  De’Anthony Thomas is one of the most fun players in the country to watch.  But there are many unknowns with Mark Helfrich.  For this reason, I am choosing Stanford as my Pac-12 North Champion. Stanford gets Oregon at home, giving them the leg up on the tiebreaker.  From my couch it appears that Stanford has it rolling as a program.  They have developed a steak and potatoes type program that makes them super fun to watch for this observer.  They feature sensational front 7 play on defense along with a terrific ground attack make them very tough to beat in that conference.  The big question mark is at running back where they have to replace Stepfan Taylor.  The good news is there are capable candidates in Palo Alto(including Bary Sanders Jr).For me David Shaw belongs in the conversation as one of the top up and coming young coaches in football.  I, for one, was very skeptical of the hire when it was made.  I am not afraid to say that I was wrong.  This year Stanford is a legitimate National Title contender once again.  Ill take the trees over the Ducks in the North.

South
The Pac 12 South is far messier than the North.  I think there are 3-4 teams that you could legitimately make a case for in that division.  USC is probably the “experts” favorite.  Those same “experts” had SC number 1 in the preseason only to watch them fall to pieces.  There was no bigger disaster last year in college football than the Trojans.  Lane Kiffin is going into his 5th years as a college football head coach, but there seem to be more questions than answers.  To me, he sucks.  His last name has given him 3 head coaching opportunities.  He has done nothing in that time to prove he is competent.  If his name were Lane Smith nobody would be handing the keys of their program over to him.  I have no faith in him at this point and think the Trojans will again dissapoint and will be looking for another coach by Thanksgiving.  UCLA has a brutal schedule with road games @ Stanford, Oregon, Nebraska, Arizona and USC.  That said, they return a number of very talented players including Brett Hundley and Anthony Barr.  They have the best mix of talent and coaching but the schedule will prove to be too much. My pick to win the Pac 12 South is Arizona State.  I think Arizona St. will be good, but they are my pick because they lack the warts the other contenders have.  Todd Graham is in his second year and while I find him unsavory personally, there is little doubt the man can coach.  They return fifteen starters from a team that went 8-5.  Taylor Kelly is the key to the offense.  Last year he completed 67% of his passes with a 29-9 ratio.  It only stands to reason that he will maintain if not improve in year 2 of the system.  I realize I may be going out on a limb with this pick but I cant find a compelling reason to pick any of the other contenders.  Besides would making picks be any fun if you just went with chalk all the time?  In the Pac 12 Title Game Stanford will defeat Arizona State on the Farm to win the Pac 12.