Saturday Notes on a Sunday, well make that a Monday

Sorry folks, various Halloween celebrations caused me to be quite ill for most of yesterday.  As a result, I could barely look at he computer screen, let along hold a thought or type some words.  So here are my Saturday notes normally reserved for Sunday but this week, for your reading pleasure, they are here on Monday.  Enjoy. 

*Pittsburgh fans had to be beside themselves after a total implosion in the 1st quarter Saturday against Georgia Tech.  In an important division game, the Panthers cough it up 5 times in the 1st quarter alone.  I don’t think I have ever heard of a team turning the ball over that many times in a quarter, and it was a team that I regard as pretty decent.  As you can imagine shooting yourself in the foot like that typically doesnt result in wins, and that held true as the Jackets won handily.

*Ameer Abdullah flat out went off Saturday for my beloved Nebraska Cornhuskers.  He was sensational accounting for 341 all purpose yards and 3 TDs.  This guy does it all.  He had 225 yards rushing on just 19 carries, 26 receiving yards and 90 return yards including one return he nearly took the distance after almost downing it at the 1.  If you are not familiar with Abdullah’s work, you are missing one of the best players in the country.  His effort and his attitude are wonderful compliments to his physical talents, which are substantial.  It has been a joy to watch him over the last 4 years.

*Another year, another defeat of the Michigan Wolverines at the hands of “little brother” Michigan State.  The Spartans dominated the Wolverines Saturday in a matchup of teams going in opposite directions. The numbers are staggering.  186 total yards, 3 turnovers, just 61 rushing yards, many of those in junk time.  It was an ass whipping all the way around.  Furthermore, Michigan had the stones to throw a spear into the Spartan turf during pregame.  This blatant disrespect only fueled State and emboldened Mark Dantonio to add a salt in the wound score in the games final minute.  This has to be freaking embarrassing for fans of the Big Blue.  Surely Saturdays defeat has to be the final nail in the Brady Hoke coffin.  Lets hear from Wolverine fans, what do you think?

*Dont look now but the surprise team in the Big 12 is the West Virginia Mountaineers.  A week after an upset over top 5 Baylor the Mountaineers go on the road, to Boone Pickens Stadium and walk out with a resounding 34-10 victory.  WVU did it behind 17 4th quarter points and holding the Pokes to 2-15 on 3rd down.  I absolutely did not think anything would come of this years West Virginia squad.  Hell, I wasnt sure about Dana Holgerson at all.  The Mountaineers now sit at 6-2 with those 2 losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  This is a team to watch going forward.

*Les Miles has often referred to Death Valley as a “place where dreams go to die.”  That held true Saturday night as the Ole Miss Rebels had their perfect season ended by an improving, but still not great, LSU team.  The Tigers won despite turning the ball over 4 times.  When was the last time a team beat a top 5 team after turning the ball over 4 times?  This loss falls squarely at the feet of the Ole Miss Offense and in particular Bo Wallace.  Wallace was a lousy14-33 passing on the night.  I understand that wins and losses do not solely fall on the QB, but when your Defense forces 4 turnovers and holds the opposition to 10 points, someone on the opposite side of the ball has to answer for that.  Ole Miss is not done, but losing a divisional game like that removes any wiggle room that may have existed for their playoff hopes.

*Speaking of Playoffs, this week the comittee will meet and determine who they believe are the top teams in the country.  So, each week I will give you mine.  These 4 are the teams that I believe will be in the playoffs at seasons end.  They will also be fluid.  If I dont like a teams performance, out they go.  This week I will go with the following in no particular order.  Oregon, Miss State, Florida State and Michigan State.  Stay tuned, these are subject to change in this week to week sport.

STOCK UP
TCU– putting up 80 on coach Bro puts you on the stock up list every time.
Illinois– Thanks a bunch Illini, for doing the Nebraska Cornhuskers a solid.  We appreciate it.
Utah– Has anyone noticed the Utes are 6-1 and in the thick of an ultra competitive Pac 12 South?
West Virginia– The Fighting Holgerson’s are turning some heads this fall.
Kansas State– This team has every shot at being a playoff team.  Tough games lie ahead, but KState is up to it.

STOCK DOWN
Michigan– The Wolverines are just plain sorry.
Ole Miss– Great teams win games in all phases.  Its clear the Rebs arent there yet.
UCLA– A football game with Colorado should not be that close, especially for a team with as much raw talent as the Bruins.
Virginia Tech– How did this team beat Ohio State?  That offense is atrocious.
Maryland– a nice win last week followed by an ass whipping this week.  Who are these guys?

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A Rough Night in East Lansing

Nebraska’s comeback bid falls short as Tommy Armstrong’s pass is intercepted by Trae Waynes with under a minute to go.  The Big Red loses on the road to a top 10 team by 5.  It all looks pretty good doesn’t it?  Plenty of good times and lolly pops with that storyline isn’t there?  I’m here to tell you there is a whole lot of lipstick on that pig.  The fact of the matter is the Huskers were dominated for a large portion of the game by a foe that was not vastly superior.  The Huskers can hang with the Spartans, but for a variety of reasons didn’t Saturday night.  NU staggered and stumbled around for most of this game without much of a clue what to do.  It was a real disappointment. I thought Nebraska would be far more competitive, especially on offense.   That is where the real disappointment lies.  NU just didn’t play their best Saturday night.  There were bright spots for sure, but Michigan State was the better team on this particular day.

Nebraska Offensively was absolutely putrid.  It was plain as day.  The Nebraska Offensive Line was manhandled by the Spartan front 4.  Marcus Rush and Shilique Calhoun lived in the Husker backfield.  No man on the Offensive Line is exempt from blame for such a horrid performance.  I would like to criticize the play calling, but it doesn’t matter what play is called if you cant block up front.  Nebraska could not handle the Spartan Defensive front allowing 5 sacks and gaining just 1.3 yards per rush.  As a result Tommy Armstrong was hounded, harassed and rattled all night long.  It also made Nebraska one dimensional.  The Husker run game, which was averaging 354 yards on the ground per game, managed a meager 47.  Tommy Armstrong was forced to drop back time and time again to face a rush of Spartan defenders with bad intentions.  He took a beating.  As a result Armstrong was wildly inaccurate and incredibly indecisive.  There were several occasions where Armstrong either didn’t see an open man or botched the throw.  It was incredibly frustrating to watch.  The Husker Offense had their chances.  They started 3 drives in Spartan territory in the first half alone, and walked out with 0 points.  This is unacceptable.  One of those drives ended on an Ameer Abdullah fumble from the wildcat formation from the 5.  It was eerily similar to a fumble he had last year against Penn State in the end zone. I have to wonder why you go to that play in that situation?  Then again its hard to be critical of Tim Beck on a night like this.  What call works when the Offensive Line cant block the man in front of them?

The Husker Defense will get a bad rap.  For much of them game the Blackshirts were hung out to dry by the Offense.  This unit hung tough, forcing Michigan State to make tough plays.  Unfortunately, Sparty is good enough to make those plays.  One TD play was a long pass to Tony Lippet who was covered by incompetent Jonathan Rose.  I have had such high expectations for Rose the last couple of years and he has consistently let me down.  After being inserted for the injured Daniel Davie, and allowing the long TD pass, he was promptly replaced by true Freshman Josh Kalu.  This unit fought and matched Michigan State for the better part of the night.  The Nebraska Defense forced 9 punts and 2 turnovers.  That is typically enough to get the W.  This may have been their best performance.  Even when the game was lopsided, this showed toughness.  Sparty had some big plays, but that is expected against such a good Offense.  Michigan State came in averaging over 50 points per game.  Connor Cook looked unsettled for the better part of this game.  That is a credit to the Nebraska front 4.  There was much to be pleased with from the Blackshirts.  This unit hung tough under horrible circumstances and fought to the end.  The Blackshirts should hold their head high, this loss does not fall at their feet.  Was it a perfect performance?  Of course not, but it was a damn fine, gritty, effort that should leave Nebraska fans proud.

Look beyond the score.  This was not a 5 point loss folks.  This was an ass kicking disguised as a 5 point loss.  Michigan State’s Defensive Front dominated NU’s O-line and it was plain to see.  Remember, this was a 27-3 game well into the 4th quarter.  Should the guts and fight of the Huskers be applauded?  I suppose, but lets not lose sight of the fact that this was a sound defeat by a team that was simply better on this particular night.  Over and over, Nebraska had chances to cash in on turnovers.  The Spartans were just begging NU to hang around.  The Huskers just couldn’t seem to take advantage.   It was maddening!!!  This loss is not the end of the world.  The Huskers need to get to work, improve upon the mistakes made and move forward.  Their goals are all still in front of them.   Win out and a date with Sparty can occur in the B1G Title Game.  First things first.  Up next is a trip to Northwestern.  This is a team that just beat Wisconsin and Penn State.  That team is starting to play good ball.  There is little time for the Huskers to lick their wounds.  If the Big Red isn’t ready to play next Saturday, the Kitties will beat them.  Then the sky will be falling.

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Huskers/Spartans Preview

If you read this blog with any regularity you will know 2 things about me.  First and foremost I live and die with Nebraska Football.  It is my favorite past time, and its not close.  Secondly you will know that I have tremendous admiration and respect for the Michigan State Football program.  Before the Big Red joined the Big 10, I considered Michigan State, along with Wisconsin, my favorite Big 10 team.  I always enjoyed the style of football played in East Lansing with players like Charles Rogers, Javon Ringer, Jeff Smoker and Drew Stanton.  Now that the Huskers and Spartans are conference bunk mates, I cannot cheer for Michigan State, but my respect for that program continues.  Mark Dantonio and Pat Narduzzi have built one of the finest programs in the country.  It doesn’t hurt that their smash mouth style and fundamental approach suites my personal tastes.  The 2014 version is no different.  If the Huskers are going to go into Spartan Stadium and come away with a victory, it will take a solid, fundamental and ballsy performance.

The Huskers last 2 performances Offensively have been pretty damn good.  The Huskers appear to have found an identity in the run game.  NU currently ranks 3rd nationally with 354 yards per game on the ground.  In particular, the last 2 games have been especially prolific.  Nebraska amassed rushing totals of 343 and 458 against Miami and Illinois.  I have a hard time believing that Nebraska will have that kind of success on the ground Saturday.  Michigan State is MUCH, MUCH, better defensively than either of those teams.  The Big Red will be forced to find some level of success through the air to keep Sparty on their toes.  Tommy Armstrong has been decent but is completing just 54% of his passes.  More concerning is the looks and pressure packages that MSU DC Pat Narduzzi with throw at him.  A major key to the game is how Armstrong reads the various looks and either checks to the correct play, or finds the proper receiver.  The Big Red cannot afford catastrophic plays as a result of poor reads or ill conceived throws.  NU must be efficient and effective in the passing game and maintain offensive balance.  If Nebraska is unable to move the ball through the air, and Sparty can lean against Ameer Abdullah and the NU run game, it will be very difficult for Nebraska to win this game.

Defensively, Nebraska’s Defense will have their hands full.  Michigan State QB Connor Cook is on another planet compared to where he was a year ago.  Thus far he is completing 69% of his passes with 9 TDs.  Cook is precise and very smart.  A year ago, in Lincoln, Cook completed 8 passes on 3rd down to keep drives alive including throws of 19, 13, and 27.  Nebraska’s D-backs will be thoroughly tested Saturday.  The Blackshirts can help matters with pressure from the front 4.  Randy Gregory and Company must get pressure on Cook and hold their own in the run game.  Last year Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford ran for over 1400 yards and 18 TDs as the Spartans went on to win the Rose Bowl.  He is capable of taking the game over behind a very good Offensive Line.  I think NU is stout enough up front to limit Langford’s effectiveness and force Connor Cook to beat them.  Unfortunately Cook is good enough to take care of that himself.

This is a monster Big 10 matchup between 2 of the best teams in the league.  Spartan Stadium will be blowing up Saturday night.  The Huskers are going to be forced to play their very best if they hope to come out victorious.  Even then, there is a damn good possibility that MSU holds serve at home.  Michigan State is as fine a team as any nationally.  There lone loss was @ Oregon against perhaps the nations best QB.  In that game Sparty had a 9 point lead at one point.  Michigan State is a tough test for any team, especially the Huskers.  If NU can come out with a W, we could be staring down a special season.  I think Nebraska is up to the task.  This team has taken on a different feel than years past.  There is a confidence that has been lacking for some time in Lincoln.  Hopefully the bright lights of East Lansing dont prove too much.  Is it Saturday yet?

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Week 6 Primer

After a bit of a snoozer weekend last week, we have finally entered the meat of conference play.  I suggest getting any and all distractions out of the way before Saturday, settle in and watch greatness occur.  Its going to be a fantastic Saturday, loaded with big time games.  There were a number of games left of this list that would have easily made it any other week.  Im giddy with excitement just thinking about what Saturday has in store.  Lets have a look.

#1Alabama @ #11 Ole Miss– A good friend of mine referred to the Rebs as the most overated team he has ever seen.  Im not sure I would go along with that but in my opinion they are not worthy of the 11th ranked team.  They get the opportunity to make a statement Saturday as the Tide come to Oxford.  The Ole Miss defense is legit giving up just 8.5 points per game.  The problem is, they havent played an Offense that ranks higher than 52nd in points per game.  Alabama averages 42 points per game, and does so with tremendous balance.  It will be a hell of a test for that Ole Miss Defense.  Additionally, Bo Wallace and the Rebel Offense has been very turnover prone.  They turned it over 3 times against Boise State and 4 times against Memphis.  That wont fly Saturday.  Give me the Tide to put Ole Miss in their place, and do so in convincing fashion.

#14 Stanford @ #9 Notre Dame– This is perhaps my favorite Notre Dame traditional rivalry.  These two teams are classic.  This year should be one of the all time best matchups.  The Irish have rushed out to a 4-0 start but really haven’t been tested.  ND QB Everett Golson is back for the Irish and just as studly as ever.  Golson already has accounted for 15 TDs thus far.  Saturday he will go up against the best defense he has faced to date.  Stanford is their usual awesome, ultra physical defensive selves.  The Cardinal are allowing just 6.5 points per game and just under 200 yards per game, both categories are the best in CFB.  This game is super tight.  Its tough get a feel for who has the edge.  I’ll take Stanford simply because I will always take an awesome Defense in a matchup like this, but it would not surprise me at all if the Irish came out and won this one.

#4 Oklahoma @ #25 TCU– I am always willing to admit when I was wrong.  It appears that I was with my assessment of the Oklahoma Sooners.  I doubted that they were worthy of a top 5 preseason ranking.  I was wrong.  The Sooner defense is excellent.  The Offense has more balance than I would have thought.  Freshman Smaje Perine ran for an eye popping 242 yards and 4 TDs against West Virginia.  This kid is one to watch.  Trevor Knight has been underwhelming thus far, completing just 58% of his passes with a 4/3 TD to INT ratio.  He must improve as the season progresses for OU to get to the playoffs.  That said, OU has done just fine with mediocre QB play.  The Sooners came out and destroyed a pretty decent Tennessee team, beat an improved WV squad and I think they will do the same in Fort Worth.  TCU has only played 3 games, Samford, offensively limited Minnesota, and dying dog SMU.  They are an unknown commodity at this point.  I’ll pick the Sooners to beat the Frogs and continue to show the nation that they are a force in the Big 12.

#6Texas A&M @ #12 Mississippi State–  I’m not sure what to make of this game.  I was impressed with MSU’s convincing victory in Death Valley a couple of weeks ago.  Dak Prescott is a super fun player to watch.  I’ve always really enjoyed Dan Mullen’s style and it appears he is getting it going in Starkville.  I think they are in for a fight Saturday.  The Aggies roll in fresh off a scare to Arkansas.  Im sure Kevin Sumlin will have his team focused.  QB  Kenny Hill has put up some absurd numbers to this point.  The dude has a 17-2 TD to INT ratio.  That does not bode well for a Bulldog defense that is suspect in the secondary.  MSU gave up 435 yards passing to UAB and 341 yards against LSU.  Kenny Hill has an opportunity to light up the MSU defense Saturday in a game that starts at noon.  Give me the Aggies to defeat the upstart Bulldogs behind their prolific offense.  .

#19 Nebraska @ #10 Michigan State– Ill have a full, at length preview later in the week.  Needless to say I am jacked for this one.

GAMBLERS CORNER– Hallelujah!!  I’m on the damn board!!  The Minnesota Golden Gophers did not let me down as they dismantled the woeful Michigan Wolverines.  If you had seen Michigan, it seemed asinine that they would give a double digit spread.  I loaded up on this game, betting double what I typically would.  That puts me @ 1-3 on the season, a record I intend on improving upon.

PICK OF THE WEEK– As I mentioned above, I like Oklahoma in a big way over TCU.  I was surprised that the spread was only 5.5.  I think this is a sound pick.  I realize that TCU is tough at home and typically sturdy against OU, but I dont believe that these teams are in the same class.  Give me the Sooners to pound away at TCU and cover the 5.5 point spread.

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Potential Trap Averted, B1G Showdown Looms

I must apologize for the tardiness of the column.  The family made a trip up to Nebraska this last weekend.  There was family, friends and of course Husker Football.  Yesterday was spent getting back to the real world.  Without a doubt it was worth it, but it means this entry comes Monday night and not Sunday morning.

I must admit, as much as I like to believe I am an optimistic Husker fans, years of experience with letdowns have led to a cautious optimism.  Even after a nice win, like the one notched against Miami, I withhold optimism.  Last week was the perfect example.  A 3 legged dog named the Illinois Fighting Illini came into Lincoln Nebraska, with their second string QB and their playground tackling style, and I was a nervous wreck.  I refused to even discuss the enormous game that will take place this Saturday, stating the Illini were first.  I was acting as if the Huskers were taking the field against the 85 Bears.  I had visions of another let down to an inferior opponent at home after a nice win.  That did not happen.  Nebraska went out Saturday night and beat the pants off an inferior foe.  Its something good teams do.  The Big Red took it to Illinois in every way.  It was encouraging, and it set up a showdown Saturday night with the Michigan State Spartans.  More than that it was an opportunity to see my favorite team in their building.  It was, as usual, a wonderful experience.

The Husker Offense punished the Illini Defense, amassing 458 yards rushing and a resounding 6.5 per attempt.  They made it look easy starting with Ameer Abdullah, who was his usual self.  Abdullah did not have to be fantastic Saturday night, there were large, gaping holes for him to sprint through.  On TDs of 12 and 8 he was hardly touched.  The Offensive Line was terrific.  Alex Lewis, Jake Cotton and company manhandled the Illini front and made the ground game success possible.  Ive been pleased by their progress over the last few weeks.  Tim Beck kept it on the ground all night long totaling 70 rushing attempts to just 21 passes.  Beck has been guilty, and criticized, for trying to reinvent the wheel as a play caller.  He deserves credit for the way he has executed the game plan these last 2 games.  Perhaps his best call was on a 63 yard play action pass bomb to Kenny Bell set up by the prolific rushing attack.  It was a beautiful, smart call by Beck to break the spirit of the Illini Defense.  Illinois bit hard, Kenny Bell broke free, and Tommy Armstrong threw a dart, Memorial Stadium erupted and gave this observer chills.  This unit appears to be developing an identity, something sorely missing in recent years. We will see if that identity holds when the sledding is not as easy as it has been these last 2 weeks.  Overall, I am aware that Illinois does not have a good Defense, but Saturday night’s performance left this Husker fan very encouraged about the prospects for the rest of the season.

The Husker Defense was quite opportunistic Saturday night.  The Blackshirts had the good fortune of not having to go against Wes Luntz who is substantially better than his backup Riley O’Toole.  O’Toole started Saturday night and he was consistently battered to the tune of 4 sacks and 3 INTs.  The NU front 4 made life miserable for him.  This was not a great night for the Nebraska Defense.  Illinois had a moderate amount of success through the air and NU fell victim to a concerning trend.  The Huskers have given up a TD on their drive in 4 of their 5 games thus far.  That has to change.  Fortunately, the Defense bounces back, but theses slow starts have to end.  Im not sure if the players are too excited, too nervous, or if the initial game plan doesn’t work.  Whatever it is, a solution must be found quickly.  I was pleased with the way the Blackshirts moved Randy Gregory around.  He is such a force out there, opposing Offenses will devise a plan to slow his progress.  Moving him around causes greater confusion at the line of scrimmage and better matchups for such a supreme talent.  It was effective Saturday night as Gregory accounted for and 7 tackles and 2.5 sacks.  His pre snap position is certainly something to watch going forward.  The Husker Defense is good, to be sure, but at this point I am not sure it is firing on all cylinders.  I feel, at this point, they should be absolutely overwhelming teams.  Perhaps my expectations for this unit are just too high, but I expect more after the 5th game than what I saw Saturday night.

Once again I must say that while I am happy with a drubbing of a conference foe, Illinois is not very good.  They have struggled, and will continue to be a lower tier Big 10 team.  They are simply poor on the defensive side and not good enough to overcome those deficiencies on the offensive side.  That said, NU does get kudos for beating the be-jesus out of them.  All a team can do is beat the team on the schedule which is precisely what the Big Red did Saturday.  This week looms much larger.  The Spartans are no 3 legged dog.  The reigning Big 10 and Rose bowl champs will be eager to test the Huskers Saturday night.  It will be a tall order for the Huskers, but a useful measuring stick as well.  I look forward to seeing how the Huskers fare against such a stout opponent.  It will be a nice showdown Saturday night under the lights in East Lansing.  The Huskers had better be ready or the Spartans will blow them out of the water.  Is it Saturday yet?

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Week 2 Primer

Opening week is in the books.  It was a bit of a strange week.  So many large favorites struggled to put away, or even defeat, underdog foes.  Again I am not sure what this means, but it something worth following.  Week 2 is similarly excellent.  There are terrific games, just not as many as loaded week 1.  Still, for week 2, this is a damn good week to be a College Football Junkie.  Here is a rundown of this weeks top 5 games.

USC @ Stanford- This is a monster game between 2 teams that were impressive in week 1.  USC shed all of the distractions surrounding its program, went out and kicked the hell out of Fresno State.  The Trojans came roaring out of the gate, scoring 24 points in the games first 20 minutes.  SC racked up an impressive 700 yards on the game, in a 52-13 rout.  Stanford did what it was supposed to do against UC-Davis.  They kicked them around for a few hours.  The score was 38-0 at halftime when David Shaw and company called off the dogs.  Surprisingly, Stanford only ran the ball for 149 yards and committed 3 turnovers.  If those areas don’t improve, SC will walk into Palo Alto and walk out with a W.  Put me down for that.  Stanford will ultimately be the better team this season, but at this point its the Trojans who are more prepared.

Michigan State @ Oregon- This game will be fantastic.  It is easily the best game on the schedule.  2 damn good programs, with contrasting styles and philosophies meet in a top 10 slug fest.  My mouth is already watering.  Both teams looked fantastic in drubbings of outmatched foes.  I like Michigan State to come out and run the ball with Jeremy Langford, controlling the game and the clock.  Connor Cook will be his usual accurate self and the Spartan offense will have a good day.  I think the Spartan defense will be ready for Marcus Marriota, Byron Marshall and the always explosive Duck Offense.  Michigan State will notch a huge win in Eugene.  The spread on this game is Oregon -13.  I think that is ridiculous.  Perhaps Michigan State does not win the game, they surely will not get their doors blown off.

Michigan @ Notre Dame- Its a shame this classic matchup is going away.  Ever since I started watching football, this game has been appointment television.  These 2 classic brands get together in 2 of the best stadiums the game has to offer and magic happens.  Why does this rivalry have to end?  Its a damn shame.  Michigan has won 4 of the last 5 in this series.  Everett Golson accounted for 5 total TDs in his return to the Irish.   Ill take the Irish to defend their home turf and hold off the Wolverines for 2 reasons.  The first of which is Golson, who will have a big game at home under the lights.  The 2nd is the Offensive Line, a weakness for the Maize and Blue and a strength for the Fighting Irish.  I am really looking forward to this game.  I’ll have to savor it this year becuase it likely will never return.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State- A few weeks ago I would have thought this was a slam dunk for OSU. That all changed when Braxton Miller was pronounced out for the season.  Replacement JT Barrett has big shoes to fill and there will be a period of adjustment.  The Hokies look to take advantage of that adjustment as they roll into Columbus.  The Hokies are led by Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer who was efficient in their opener, throwing for 250 yards, and 2 TDs.  Its a whole new ball game this week.  I think the Hokies stand a punchers chance in Columbus, I really do, but ultimately OSU has too much speed and depth on the D-line.  Brewer will be hounded and harassed and rushing yards will be hard to come by.  The Buckeyes win this game on the strength of their defense.

BYU @ Texas- The one word that will describe this game is revenge.  Remember a year ago when the Cougars racked up 679 yards of total offense including 550 on the ground in route to a 40-21 embarrassment of the Horns.  This year will be different as Charlie Strong has UT running to the ball and tackling like a real football team.  Even though BYU returns all of its O-Lineman, QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams, I like the Horns defense in this matchup.  The problem for UT will be on the offensive end where David Ash will miss the game and Tyrone Swoopes will start. If the Horn offense can muster a couple of TDs, I like their chances.  Regardless I think this will be a good watch Saturday night.

GAMBLERS PICK OF THE WEEK- each week I will select one game to pick against the spread, and chart my progress.  Remember, gambling on sports is illegal and these picks are made for entertainment purposes only.  College Football Junkie does not, in any way, endorse illegal activities of any kind and is not responsible for the consequences associated with following to these picks.  So without further ado, here is my pick of the week.
Arizona (-7.5) @ UTSA- Many folks witnessed a wonderful victory for the Roadrunners last Saturday night on the road over Houston.  This was a terrific, impressive, win for this young program.  That said, I think they are going to run into a buzz saw on Thursday night.  I think the Arizona Wildcats are an up and coming team with a promising offense.  Last Friday Arizona rolled up 787 yards against UNLV including 434 through the air and 2, 100 yard rushers.  I like UTSA, I think their program is going in a promising direction, but a 7.5 point spread for this game just seems really low.

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2014 College Football Playoff Picks

Well folks, its here.  Our troubles are over.  The solution to all of our problems has arrived.  At long last College Football has a playoff.  Fans and media alike have been clamoring and crying for this my whole life.  Finally, an end to the bitching and complaining that surrounds the great game of College Football…….WRONG!!!  This 4 team playoff will do little to quell the outrage fans around the country will feel.  In fact, I believe this system may add fuel to the fire.  Now there will be several teams that feel they should be in the top 4 and the Championship playoff.  The bitching has not ended, it has only begun.  Regardless, here are my playoff picks for the 2014 season.

#1 Florida State-  Easy pick.  The Noles may be the best team in the nation and have a manageable road to the Playoff.  Are there good teams on the schedule?  Absolutely, but none capable of beating FSU at their best.  The only way Florida State does not make the playoff is if complacency or boredom set in.  I don’t think Jameis Winston and Jimbo Fischer will let that happen.  Put me down for the Noles rolling through the regular season unscathed and perhaps untested.

#4  South Carolina- This pick will surprise some.  The Gamecocks will get in by defeating Alabama in the SEC title game.  As the winner of the nations best league South Carolina gets into the playoff with 2 losses.  This will anger some, but ultimately SC has a damn good case for their inclusion.  Look for South Carolina to be spearheaded by a fast defense and a dependable offense.  RB Mike Davis is a god damn stud and Steve Spurrier will do his best job to date in Columbia.  SC will win its first conference title since 1993.

#2  Michigan State- I had the Buckeyes in this spot, hell I had them winning both the conference and the whole freaking thing.  I just cant see it with the injury to Braxton Miller.  I dont know that I can remember a preseason injury that derailed a contender’s chances like this one.  Sparty will be a worthy, and undefeated, participant in this playoff.  Their offense will be better than last year and while the defense will take a step back, it will still be ravenous.  Mark Dantonio is one of the best coaches in the country and folks will finally give him his due.  Look for the Spartans to finish the season as an undefeated conference champion, ready to make some noise in the playoff.

#3 Alabama- Herein lies the turd in the punch bowl.  Sparty, FSU and South Carolina will all be conference champs, each deserving of their place in the inaugural playoffs.   Alabama will not.  The Tide will get in based upon SEC love and their recent accomplishments.  Paul Finebaum will do so much politicking, you would think he is running for Senate.  I see Bama losing at least one game in the regular season, possibly to Ole Miss or LSU,  and then again in the SEC title game.    Still, they will be chosen over a few excellent, worthy squads.  This will cause outrage in several college towns across the country.

THE COLD SHOULDER- a few teams with a legitimate beef.

Baylor- The Bears will once again impress fans across the country by lighting up scoreboards.  Art Briles knows how to coach and Bryce Petty is surgical that offense.  Look for the Bears to tear up Big 12 defenses like they are made of cheap tissue paper.  Petty will be up for all kinds of accolades and the Bears will repeat as Big 12 champs.  They will slip up somewhere along the way and it will keep them out of the playoff.  The Bears gripe with the system will be highly justified.

UCLA- This is the year the nation will stand up and take notice that the Pac 12 is the deepest conference in the country.  There are several good to very good teams in this league.  UCLA will win this league but will do so with a blemish or two on its resume.  This team is as good as any nationally.  The Bruins will play a comparable schedule to Alabama and they will win their conference.  But the Bruins will be snubbed.  Folks out west will cry a foul but it will not matter.  No team west of the Mississippi will make the playoffs.

Clemson- Obviously the Tigers will not win the ACC, but they will be very, very good.  Their defense could be downright ridiculous.  I see them losing to FSU and to South Carolina, both playoff teams.  Their 2 losses will be better than the 2 losses of Alabama, thus giving them a legitimate argument for their inclusion.  Again, Alabama is simply a sexier addition to the playoffs and, as a result, the Tigers will be on the outside looking in.

I originally had the Buckeyes winning the whole enchilada.  I still think its an formidable team, loaded on the D-line, and with weapons aplenty.  But the loss of Miller will be far too much to overcome.  As it stands I’ll pick South Carolina and Michigan State to upset Florida State and Alabama in the semifinals.  The country will moan and groan about how the two best teams aren’t in the championship game.  Playoffs dont always give you the desired matchup in the title game.  This title game will be an absolute dog fight between two ultra physical squads.  I’ll take the South Carolina Gamecocks to grind it out and surprise everyone and win the National Championship.

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Big 10 Picks

The Big 10 gets a bad rap.  Its become something of a punch line for fans around the country.  Folks regard the brands and style as bland and out dated.  The talking heads over at the worldwide leader don’t help matters.  Big 10 football is tough, rugged, hard nosed football.  It warms my heart.   Im here to tell you this conference is pretty good, and getting substantially better.  Urban Meyer has turned Ohio State into a perennial National Title contender, Mark Dantonio’s Michigan State squad finished 2013 with a Rose bowl victory and a top 5 ranking.  Nebraska has won 9 or more games in each of the last 6 seasons, a claim only a few programs can make.  James Franklin and Gary Andersen are both poised for successful runs at Penn State and Wisconsin respectively.  Even traditional cellar dwellers like Minnesota and Indiana are improving.  This league is full of teams that are trending upward.  I suspect this trend continues in 2014.  Making these picks was quite difficult, considering the number of contenders and new divisions.  I may have egg on my face by seasons end.  Regardless, here goes.

In the East its a battle between the league’s 2 best teams.  Michigan State and Ohio State are the clear class of this conference.  The Spartans do it, primarily, with defense.  They play a tough, physical, fast brand of defense.  This unit is flat out nasty.  Last season they lead the conference in points per game, rushing defense and total defense.  Defensive Coordinator Pat Narduzzi is as good an assistant as there is nationally.  The Spartan defense looks like a pack of wolves in green.  Its a beautiful sight.  What made the Spartans so great last year was the fact that the offense figured it out.  QB Connor Cook went from being a caretaker to a playmaker.  His even keel nature and sharp accuracy paved the way for an offensive breakthrough.  This transformation made the Spartans one of the best teams toward the end of the season.  Cook returns, along with top rusher Jeremy Langford who ran for over 1400 yards last season.  The offense’s experience, and the return of Marcus Rush, Kurtis Drummond and Taiwan Jones on defense, could make Sparty scary good in 2014.  Unfortunately for MSU, they will be ousted by the Buckeyes.

Ohio State too is coming off a terrific season.  The Buckeyes averaged an astounding 6.8 yards per rush in 2013.  That was the best in the nation.  QB Braxton Miller should again be fantastic.  Last year he ran for over 1000 yards and threw for over 2,000.  Urban Meyers offense is predicated on spreading out defenses and then exploiting that weakness.  He is pretty damn good at it, particularly when he has superior personnel.  Look for WR Dontre Wilson to have a breakout campaign in 2014.  Wilson has speed to burn and will be used in a wide variety of ways, much like Percy Harvin was at Florida.  However, it will be the defense that will vault the Buckeyes to the conference title.  Noah Spence and Joey Boza will wreek havoc up front for Ohio State.  These two are a couple of animals.    The key date for is November 8th when the Bucks go to East Lansing for a monster showdown.  This game will ultimately determine the division champ.  Sparty may be at home, but I like the Buckeyes to go in there and steal one.  It will be payback for last seasons Big 10 title game that cost the Bucks a shot at the National Title.  Both Sparty and the Bucks are serious contenders to play in the inaugural 4 team playoff, but Ill hold off on those predictions until another day.

The Big 10 West lacks a true front runner.  There are a few key contenders, but they all have their share of issues.  There is the Iowa Hawkeyes, whose toughness on the lines makes them a serious threat.  The Hawkeyes pound the ball with a 240 lb battering ram named Mark Weisman.  The problem for the Hawkeyes is replacing their LB core from last year.  Anthony Hitchens, James Morris and Christian Kirksey, these 3 led the team in tackles and formed the best LB core in the conference.  Replacing that production will be a tall order.  They will be sorely missed in Iowa City.  Iowa also lacks a true outside threat.  Kevonte Martin Manley led the team with 388 yards in 2013.  Thats not a lot of production from that position.  The lack of a deep threat will allow Hawkeye opponents to load up on Weisman and the run game.  One dimensional teams typically don’t win Championships.  For these reasons I cannot pick the Hawks as my Big 12 West winner.

Likewise Northwestern appears to have a realistic shot at the division.  The Wildcats Have a talented receiving core with its top 2 receivers returning as well as USC transfer Kyle Prater.  Last year, Veneric Mark was among the hobbled, playing in just 3 games.  Mark is an explosive playmaker at both RB and kick returner.   He is lightening in a bottle for the Wildcats.  The key offensively is Trevor Siemian, who must improve.  If he does, and Mark stays healthy, this offense could be exceptional.  The defense looks solid as well.  NW returns 12 of its top 14 tacklers from a year ago including Chi Chi Ariguzo, who is one to watch.  Last year the Wildcats lost 5 close conference games including to Ohio State, Nebraska and Michigan.  The talent is there in Evanston.  The issue for Northwestern is the schedule.  There are trips to Penn State, Iowa and tough home games against Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan.  That is tough road for the Wildcats. They wont be able to climb that mountain.

On paper I think Nebraska might be the best team in the west.  The Huskers return their top 5 tacklers, top 4 rushers and 5 of their top 6 receivers.  There are studs like Ameer Abdullah, Randy Greggory and Michael Rose.  The Huskers have the potential to be amongst the best teams in the conference.  The problems for the Big Red are two fold. First the schedule is brutal.  The Huskers go to Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Yowza!!  I think the talent exists in Lincoln to navigate the schedule.  The chief problem for the Huskers lies in the mirror.  The Huskers have led the league in turnovers the last 2 seasons and it wasn’t close.  Nebraska also led the conference in penalties and are known to lay an egg at least once a year.  It seems the Big Red shoot themselves in the foot when they can least afford to do so.  Its an epidemic in Lincoln.  If Bo Pelini can rectify some of these errors the Huskers could be the hands down favorite.  I’m skeptical that will happen.

I suppose all of the preceding means I am picking the Wisconsin Badgers to win the West.  The Badgers have their flaws like the rest of the teams in the West.  The Badgers lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers from last year including my personal favorite Chris Borland.  Additionally UW lost all 4 of their top receivers.  There is also talk of an open QB competition between Joel Stave and converted Safety Tanner McEvoy.  These are all negatives for Wisconsin, but the positives are irrefutable.  First the schedule is as about as soft as it gets.  Wisconsin avoids Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State from the East, and gets Nebraska at home.  The schedule maker made life really easy in Madison.    Additionally, the Badgers return 4 road graders, in the form of Offensive line starters from a year ago.  To run behind those bohemoths, All-World thoroughbred Melvin Gordon who averaged nearly 8 yards per carry last year.  8!!  Once again the Badgers should be able to run the ball opponents, which just makes life easier on the rest of the squad.  If Gary Andersen has half of a brain he will ride this Offensive Line and Gordon to a Big 10 West title in 2014.

In the title game I expect the Badgers to put up a hell of a fight, but ultimately will fall to the Buckeyes.

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Notes and Such 5/10

*Some ideas sound better in theory than they do in practice.  That is the case with the Pac 12 title game being played on campus.  I thought this was going to be awesome.  I figured the atmosphere of a home crowd would set it apart.  That hasnt happened.  The game has not been very well attended and there have been other issues as well.  In response the Pac 12 is looking to move its title game to Santa Clara California, to the new stadium the 49ers are building.  I applaud the Pac 12 for trying an on campus title game.  It was a bold move.  I really thought it was going to be terrific.  If its not working, then fix it.  A brand new stadium, in a major metropolitan area, is just what the Dr. ordered for the conference’s marquee event.  Once again this conference is being proactive to fix its issues.

Random Team of the Week- Michigan State Spartans

Its no secret that the sport of football has evolved.  Pass happy offenses with up to 5 WRs have gone from an oddity to commonplace over the last decade.  On any given Saturday, you can see a team put up ridiculous, video game type stats.  These changes to the game are relatively new.  Amidst all this change there are still a handful of teams that play a more classic style of ball.  The Michigan State Spartans absolutely fit that mold.  The Spartans have an identity, a conservative offense and a bunch of junk yard dogs on defense.  For those that think defense is dead in College Football, I implore you to watch the Spartans.  Mark Dantonio and Defensive Coordinator Pat Narduzi have built an excellent program.  In my mind he is amongst the best coaches in the country.  He has the resume to back up my claim.  In the last 5 years the Spartans have amassed win totals of 11, 11, and 13.  In each of those seasons they were undefeated at home.  Michigan State does it with a tough, disciplined, and ultra physical squad.  They have a profile for each position and they recruit to that profile.  Their old school approach has made them one of my favorite teams in the country to watch.

2013 was a banner year for the Spartans.  The Spartans won 13 games, the Big 10 title, the Rose Bowl and were a bad call away from playing for the National Title.  It all started on the defensive side of the ball for Sparty.  The Spartans led the nation in fewest yards allowed per game, rush defense, and were 3rd in points against allowing a measly 13 points per game.  Still, the numbers don’t tell the story.  This unit was fast, hungry, intimidating and flat out nasty.  It was beautiful.  Furthermore the defense carried the offense for the first part of the year while it got its sea legs.  Opening game starting QB Andrew Maxwell was replaced by Connor Cook who was initially every bit as inept as Maxwell.  Over the course of the season Cook stepped up and made big time plays.  Cook is an incredibly accurate passer.  Although he only completed 58% of his passes he had a 22/6 TD to Int ratio.   That is fantastic.  The Spartan running game also took shape.  Jeremy Langford ran for over 100 yards in 8 of their final 9 games and scored 19 TDs on the season.  He was steady and effective.  Once the offense got up to speed, Michigan State was one of the very best teams in the nation.  They rolled through the back half of the season winning their final 10 games including a Big 10 title game victory over #2 Ohio State.

There is little reason to believe that Michigan State cant be great again this year.  They lost plenty of playmakers on that killer defense, but what they didn’t lose was Pat Narduzi.  If I were assembling an all star coaching staff he would be my first choice for Defensive Coordinator.   The defense may be green behind the ears, but they will be just fine.  Meanwhile, the offense returns most of its playmakers including Cook and Langford.  The schedule has its share of land mines.  They go on the road to Oregon, and Penn State and host Ohio State, Nebraska, and Michigan.  The biggest game of the year looks to be Ohio State on November 8th.  Both teams will be highly ranked and the victor will likely win that division.  Circle that game right now.  In 2014 the Spartans will have its same identity of tough, hard nosed football and will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10.  Will they win it?  That is another prediction for another day.

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Recruiting: Part One

On Wednesday, February 5th one of the biggest dog and pony shows in sports will commence.  Blue chip prospects from around the country will declare their college choices in front of packed auditoriums and enthusiastic students.  They will announce their intentions with a ridiculous hat ceremony, wherein they will line up a few hats and dramatically (sarcasm alert) pick their destination.  Pundits and recruiting services from across the land will pick winners and losers and forecast the future for each program.  One way or the other, fans will go bananas according to what the pundits say.  I’m here to tell you the whole scene is just plain stupid.  There is no doubt recruiting is the lifeblood of college football, but things aren’t as black and white as recruiting services make them seem. Success in the fall is not determined by which hat a player chooses in February, but rather the development that takes place once that player arrives on campus, and the evaluation of talent by coaching staffs across the country.

Let’s take a look at some hard numbers.  The University of Texas has finished the recruiting cycle ranked 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 24th in the years 2009-2013.  In those years since 2010 they have won 5, 8, 9, and 8 games. Its not a fluke. The Tennessee Volunteers finished ranked 10th, 9th, 13th, 17th, and 21st from 2009 to 2013 according to Rivals.  In 2010 The Vols won 6 games, and have won 5 each year since.  The Florida Gators are in this group.  In that same span Florida finished 11th, 2nd, 12th, 3rd, 4th in the rankings.  They have won 8, 7, 11 and 4 games in the last 4 years.  These results don’t match up do they?  Conversely Michigan State has finished 30th, 31st, 41st and 40th from 2010-2013.  Their win totals over that time have been 11, 11, 7, and 13 in the last 4 seasons.  Likewise, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have finished 36th, 31st, 28th, 32nd and 36th in the rankings since 2009.  The have won 11, 12, 8, and 10 games since 2010.  The point I am trying to make is that these rankings are not directly indicative of a teams future success.  There are several other factors that go into future outcomes than where a team finishes in February.

Services like Rivals and Scout assign a star ranking from 1-5.  Rivals assigns a value to each star ranking and tallies them for their team rankings.  This system is overly simplistic.  It is not uncommon for a 2 or 3 star prospect to become a first round draft pick, or for a 4 or 5 star player to be a total bust.  There are just too many variables to consider to place a single value on a prospect.  These services consider a prospects talents, statistics, location and other raw measurables when making this determination.  These are important, but there are several factors that get excluded.  A player can have all the right ingredients physically, but if he has an attitude problem, or lacks the mental or emotional maturity to handle college life, then he will most likely underperform.  Mentality is also important no matter how many stars the recruiting services assign.  Give me a prospect that may not have the top end attributes, but is willing to work his ass off to be the best.  Ideally, a top prospect would have both fantastic ability and desire to be the best, but too often that is not the case.  Additionally, with 18-year-olds we don’t know who has peaked physically, and who has room to grow.  Some prospects blossom in their first year of collegiate strength training, while others have already topped out.  The preceding cannot be properly considered by the recruiting services.  Since the individual rankings are faulty, it obviously flaws the team rankings.  Thus, it is an inherently skewed system because of its oversimplification.

I would like to repeat that recruiting is obviously important.  You cant win without the horses.  But talent evaluation is the most underrated part of recruiting.  To me, the teams that recruit the best are the teams that evaluate the player, and the person, as a whole and determine if he is a good fit for their program.  I mentioned Michigan State earlier, they do a marvelous job evaluating players and getting young men who are a good fit for their program.  Have you seen the Spartans play?  They clearly have direction, mentality and some grad A thoroughbreds on that team.  It is a credit to Mark Dantonio and his vision for that program.  Meanwhile Texas has turned down each of the last 3 Heisman trophy winning QBs while struggling with that position themselves.  Those two are on the opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to talent evaluation.  Please, I beg you, don’t buy into the hype.  Success in the fall is not determined by which hat an 18-year-old chooses in February.  It’s determined by talent evaluation, player development, and a programs direction, not some stupid hat ceremony.

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