Week 7 Primer

Last Saturday was beautiful.  There is no other word to describe all of the wonderful action that took place for nearly 12 hours Satuday.  The early game included the most impressive team in the country, Miss State.  Then came the loaded 2:30 time slot with 3 matchups between ranked teams, all of which were riveting.  In particular the Ole Miss/Alabama game was perhaps the best this year.   To make the action even better, most of the favorites, Alabama for instance, were defeated.  It was unlike any Saturday I have ever witnessed.  This Saturday is also terrific.  I don’t think we will have the kind of excellence seen last Saturday, but there is plenty of meat on the bone.  Lets have a look:

#2 Auburn @ #3 Mississippi State– It gets no easier for the Bulldogs as Gus Malzahn’s Auburn Tigers come to Starkville for a top 5 showdown.  We will see is the Dogs can put last weeks monster win in the rear view and focus on the Tigers.  This is going to be a hell of a game.  I enjoy the styles of these two teams better than last week.  I really liked what I saw from the Bulldog defense last week against A&M.  They rattled and turned Kenny Hill over 3 times.  Nick Marshall is far more seasoned than Hill and the MSU defense will have to be up to the task.  MSU QB Dak Prescott has been marvelous to this point and he will have to be again if MSU is going to win this game and take over the #1 spot.  Ive doubted Dan Mullen’s team all season.  I think I am done with that.  Give me the home team in this most excellent of games.

#9 TCU @ #5 Baylor– This game is likewise going to be fantastic.  These 2 teams truly despise one another.  This rivalry goes back a long, lon g way.  TCU is coming off an impressive win over Oklahoma.  I gave the Frogs no chance, but was greatly impressed with what I saw.  TCU Offensive Coordinator Sonnie Cumbie’s offense has really taken flight in Fort Worth. Trevone Boykin threw for 318 yards and ran for 77 yards against a Sooner Defense that I smothered in praise.  Can he repeat such an impressive performance this weekend in Waco?  I’m anxious to see.  Meanwhile Art Briles team leads the nation with 51 points per game and have cruised up to this point, including a 21 point victory in Austin last weekend.  The Frogs will be far and away the best team they have faced.  I’m not sure how the Bears will respond.  I have no clue who will win this game, but whoever does has the inside track on a league title and a spot in the playoff.

#12 Oregon @ #18 UCLA– This is a survival game for 2 teams that had playoff aspirations a week ago.  This week’s loser is out of the playoff picture entirely.  UCLA has been maddeningly inconsistent this year.  One week they thump Arizona State, the next they get upset at home by Utah.  A team that I felt was loaded to the gills with talent has played in 4 one possession games thus far.  That is ridiculous.  Oregon was thought to be amongst the very best teams in the country prior to losing to Arizona last weekend.  Now they face a survival game in the Rose Bowl.  I like Marcus Marriota and the Ducks in this game.  Oregon has won 5 in a row in this series and I prefer the way they have played to this point.  The Bruins have been far too inconsistent for me to just believe they will turn it on Saturday night.

#3 Ole Miss @ #14 Texas A&M– Its a bounce back game for the Aggies, after getting beat up by Mississippi State.  In comes the Rebels with their speedy, blood thirsty, Defense.  That Defense is only allowing 10.1 points per game.  That figure is impressive but I smell a massive road let down for Hugh Freeze’s club.  Bo Wallace and Company are highly suspect on Offense.  I think the Aggie Offense will put up too many points for the Rebels to counter.  Kyle Field will be swaying, and A&M will play lights out behind Kenny Hill, Trey Williams and Josh Reynolds.  The young Rebels will still be thinking about Alabama and the Aggs will slap them around.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

USC @ #10 Arizona– The Arizona Wildcats might be 2014’s feel good story.  Rich Rodriguez’s tale of redemption is pretty cool.  His tenure at Michigan was a total train wreck, but when he got the Arizona job, I was confident he would have success.  Its good to see.  This Saturday the feel good story will continue as the Wildcats get past the USC Trojans.  I cant figure out Southern Cal.  They beat Stanford in Palo Alto, and then lose to Boston College and then blow a late lead to Arizona State.  Give me Nick Wilson and Terris Jones Grigsby, who both average over 5 yards per rush, to pace the Wildcats in a defeat of the Trojans.  This game will most likely be tight, but I like what I see from Arizona.  They have confidence of playing in a lot of close games and talent to burn.  I’m not sure what the rest of the season holds for this team, but I am excited to see the program Rich Rod has put together in Tuscon.

Pick of the Week- My struggles continue as Oklahoma loses to TCU and my record fall to 1-4.  Oh brother.

This weeks Pick is Northwestern +4.5, winners of 2 in a row, to go to Minnesota and beat the spread.  After a miserable start, Pat Fitzgerald’s team has gotten its bearings, beating Penn State and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks.  Minnesota is inferior to both of those teams.  I really cant see why they are an underdog at Minnesota.  Seems like a good pick, but you’ve heard that before.

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SEC West Picks

In a less than bold selection, I am picking the Alabama Crimson Tide to win the SEC West.  The Tide have been hands down the best program in the country over the last several seasons, winning 3 National Titles.  This Alabama team is similarly talented but there are question marks.  First, Florida State transfer Jake Coker takes the reigns under center.  Coker has potential, but to this point he has done nothing.  I think a lot people overlook how good A.J McCarron was.  He was a cool, calming force on ridiculously talented teams.  I don’t think Bama can just roll out of bed and replace him.  The other big question is new Offensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin.  Any time a high ranking coach is changed, there is a transition.  What will the Alabama offense look like with Kiffin calling the plays?  The Tide certainly have the horses, but this change poses a real question in 2014.  Regardless I will stick with this Alabama team.  The schedule is managable and the talent is ample.  Alabama returns their top 5 rushers including T.J Yeldon who rushed for over 1200 yards and 14 TDs in 2013.  As always, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart know how to coach defense, and this unit will be one of the best in the nation.  The Bama defenders have talent aplenty and speed to burn.  This is a physical unit that is annually one of my favorites to watch.  The Crimson Tide indeed have a couple of pressing concerns in 2014, but I will call for them to win the division none the less.

I would like weigh in on the rest of the SEC West.  Many believe that Auburn will once again win this division and be a National Title contender.  I disagree.  Last year Auburn won 6 single possession games including 2 of the most improbable wins imaginable.  We all remember the field goal return against Alabama, but most forget the hail mary that beat Georgia.  There is no way the Tigers are that fortunate again.  They also lost key cogs in Tre Mason, and OT Gregg Robinson.  Gus Malzahn is obviously a fantastic coach, but there is no way they duplicate the success they had in 2013.  The wild card, in my estimation, is Ole Miss.  The Rebel defense could be nasty, as they return 8 of their top 9 tacklers from last year.  That is a unit to keep an eye on.  Offensively, QB Bo Wallace might be the best QB in a league short on experienced QBs.  Wallace must improve his ball security for the Rebels to make the leap to a top team.  The real asset in Oxford is Hugh Freeze who I hold in high regard.  He is a damn good coach who had the unenviable task of cleaning up the dumpster fire Houston Nutt left behind.  Ole Miss has improved each year and could potentially be on the cusp of being awesome.  They are a real dark horse contender not just in the SEC West, but nationally.

 

Missouri Tigers

Random Team of the Week: Missouri
Changing Conferences isn’t easy.  Its tough, really tough.  Its even tougher when you move from a good conference to the toughest.  So I will give Missouri a pass for their 5-7 campaign in 2012.  Its especially easy to give them a pass when you look at last year.  A 12-2 season and a near conference title and potential title shot are not easy to come by.  A look at the last 5 years reveals that the Tigers have developed a pretty good, but inconsistent football program.  Their win totals in the last 5 years are 8, 10, 8, 5, 12.  Not too bad, but inconsistent is an appropriate term.

This past season they pissed one away against South Carolina.  The Tigers blew a 17 point 4th quarter lead and lost in OT.  The also  got run over in the SEC title game where they gave up 545 yards rushing.  They capped off a successful season with a Cotton Bowl victory over a very decent Oklahoma State team.  A Mizzou fan has to feel nothing but good about 2013 and going forward in the rugged, but increasingly manageable, SEC.  Maty Mauk will take over for James Franklin under center.  Mauk got his feet wet in 2013, spelling the injured Franklin.  In 4 games of considerable action Mauk had 11 TDs and only 2 INTs.  He must work on being more efficient.  He only completed just over 50% of his passes.  That will have to improve.  The Offense also returns Dorial Green-Beckham, a 6-6 WR who caught 12 TD passes as a Sophmore.  Green Beckham will be one of the best WR’s in the country in 2014.

Defensively the Tigers were 4th nationally in sacks and 3rd in turnover margin.  Those are outstanding statistics, and a big part of the Tiger’s success.  Will they be repeated in 2014?  Probably not, but they should still be good in those areas.  Their schedule is reasonably manageable.  They miss Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss from the west, but still have the usual suspects from the east.  They do go to South Carolina, Florida and A&M, but as far as SEC schedules go, this one is pretty manageable.  I expect Misery to be a real threat in the SEC East.  Will they win it?  The answer to that question will have to wait until I do my picks this summer.

BCS Title Game: 2nd half thoughts

Wow!!!  What an awesome half of football.  This is what it is all about.  Florida State comes out after a horrible half and plays much better to win the National Title.  The defense in particular was much, much better in the 2nd half.  They did a terrific job of finding the football and tackling.  Those guys are fast and ferocious.  Still, Trey Mason and Nick Marshall were up to the task.  Mason finished the game with nearly 200 yards.  He might be my favorite back in College Football.  He has so many gears and incredible vision.  Give Auburn all the credit in the world for having the season they have had.  They are the most improbable team to nearly win a title I have ever seen.  From a 3 win team to the BCS title game.  Unbelievable.  They should be very proud.  Florida State wins this game on the strength of their defense and an electric kickoff return.  Their offense was largely underwhelming, but made plays when they had to.  FSU got the ball down 4 with 1:19 remaining and drove the length of the field to score the decisive TD.  Jameis Winston showed that he has the intangibles of a great player.  His short memory and leadership were on display tonight.  Congrats to the Florida State Seminoles, 2014 National Champs.  Incredible.

Title game thoughts: First half

Auburn is absolutely tearing FSU apart.  There is no sugar coating it.  The Tigers are doing whatever they want against Florida State.  Many thought this game would be a coronation for Florida State. Instead, this game has the look of a curb stomping.  Auburn has befuddled the Noles on both sides of the ball.  But the bigger story is FSU.  They are in full blown meltdown mode.  Their explosive offensive attack has been replaced with a penalty ridden, mistake prone mess.  Florida State has 4 penalties and a fumble in the first half.  Jameis Winston has been wildly inaccurate, passing for only 62 yards.  Worse than that, he has that deer in the headlights look.  Its not as if the Noles haven’t had their chances.  They get a free first down off of a roughing the punter penalty, and go 3 and out.  Auburn misses a field goal and on the 2nd play afterward, Winston fumbles.  Rashad Green drops a 3rd down pass.  Perhaps with the late TD they are getting back on track.  In the 2nd half Florida State must improve its 3rd down success rate on both sides of the ball.  FSU is a paltry 2-8 while Auburn is 8-12.  Winston simply must come alive and FSU’s Defense needs to limit the big plays and tackle a whole lot better.  Improvement will have to be substantial if Jimbo Fischer’s club hopes to hoist the crystal ball tonight.

 

follow: @jakeanderson998

turkey day weekend big games

Alabama @ Auburn- The Iron Bowl

The Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn is one of my favorite rivalry games in College Football.  These teams, and their fans, do not like one another at all.  These fans live next door to one another.  The loser will have to hear about this one every single day until next year.  The result is an electric atmosphere that is second to none.  There have been wonderful, hard fought nail biters, throughout the years.  I’m sorry to tell you that this game will not be one of them.

The Auburn Tigers have been this year’s surprise team.  Nobody, and I mean nobody, thought the Tigers would be in this position.  But here they are playing for the SEC West title on Thanksgiving against their arch nemesis.  1st year Auburn Head Coach Gus Malzahn deserves consideration for Coach of the year, for the turnaround the Tigers have made.  Consider that they didn’t win a game in the SEC last season.  The Tigers have had a terrific, wonderful, year.  Their fans should be very proud.  But Saturday afternoon they will be crushed by a locomotive named the Alabama Crimson Tide.

It is well documented that I have tremendous admiration for The Alabama Football program.  Their physicality and style of play are right up my alley.  They out man, and out muscle their competition.  It is a sight to behold.  The game Saturday will be no exception.  Auburn’s spread run attack has little, to no, chance of escaping Alabama’s suffocating Defense.  The Tide lead the nation in points against allowing just 9.3 points per game.  In 5 of their 7 conference games they have held their opponent to 7 points or fewer.  That is just ridiculous.  Bama’s offense is terrific as well.  A.J McCarron is still amongst the most underrated players nationally.  McCarron is Mr. Cool back there.  The hardest part about playing Alabama is their balance.  They do everything well.  It creates a pick your poison predicament for opponent.  Auburn will be forced to choose theirs.  In the end Alabama will cover the spread with ease.  This is one of my best bets of the week.  Alabama is on a mission.  They will crush Auburn, and it will not be close.

The Lean Alabama -11

The Score 35-14

Texas A&M @ Missouri

I don’t think this is the ending to the Johnny Football story that A&M fans had pictured.  While Manziel has been fantastic this season with 40 total TDs, the rest of the Aggies have not been up to the task.  Football is a team game, one player, even as great as Johnny Manziel cannot do it on his own.  The Aggs would be better off f he played LB as well.  The A&M Defense is atrocious, particularly against the run.

Saturday they head to Columbia Missouri to play the Tigers.  What does Missouri do particularly well?  That is right, they run the ball very well.  The Tigers top 3 rushers EACH average more than 6 yards per carry.  This, obviously sets up very poorly for Texas A&M.    Missouri also ranks 10th in turnovers gained and 7th in turnover margin.  That also bodes poorly for the Aggs.  Overall I think Johnny Football will do enough to keep this game competitive for a while,but it will be like swimming upstream.  Eventually Missouri will take control of this game and easily defeat The Aggs.

The Lean: Missouri -5

The Score: 45-28

Ohio State @ Michigan.

This game proves that rivalries, no matter how rich, require both teams to be competitive.  There is NO WAY IN HELL that Michigan beats Ohio State.  Further I think it is highly unlikely that the Buckeyes don’t cover.  Don’t believe me?  Here are some facts: Michigan has lost 3 of 4 games, The Wolverines have rushed for 60, 139, -21, and -48 yards in those 4 games, they average 209 yards per game over that span, Devin Gardner sucks, the Buckeyes are 6th nationally against the run, OSU is 3rd nationally with 48 points per game, and figure the Buckeyes need to impress voters by pounding whoever steps in front of them.  The spread is a healthy 16, but that simply won’t be enough.  The hapless Wolverines are a lamb being led to slaughter.  This rivalry was much, much better when these teams were on equal footing.

The pick: OSU -16

The Score: 49-0

Notre Dame @ Stanford

These 2 meet in their annual rivalry game thanksgiving weekend.  I think this one is pretty under rated as far as rivalries goes.  I can recall a few pretty good, and profitable, games this rivalry has provided in recent years.  The last few years I have found tremendous value betting on The Cardinal, as Notre Dame seems to be consistently over valued.  It seems that pendulum has now swung the other way as Stanford is a 15.5 point favorite Saturday.  I think this spread is far too high.  Notre Dame has played plenty of close games this year and Stanford’s Offense isnt the type that typically blows folks out.  Also, Notre Dame has the kind of Defensive Line that can stand up to the road graders that Stanford has up front.  I would guess that Stanford would win this game, but I can’t see them covering this spread.

The Lean Notre Dame -15.5

The score: Stanford wins 27-21

Here are a few more rivalry games.  I’ll do these quickly.

Clemson @ South Carolina(-4)- Give me the team with the better QB.  I will take Taj Boyd and Clemson to complete a terrific season by beating their in state rival.

Georgia (-4) @ Georgia Tech- Call me a fool, I will take the Dogs.  I still think they have superior talent, even with the injuries, to Georgia Tech.

Duke @ North Carolina(-5.5)-  This rivalry isn’t just for basketball anymore.  The Dukies are playing for a division title.  I think The Heels will rob them of it in a close game.  Give me North Carolina to win, but not cover.

UCLA @ USC (-3.5)- The turnaround for S.C this season is remarkable.  They must be commended.  That said I think UCLA is the better, more consistent team.  I will take the Bruins and the points in the battle for L.A